Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2010-11


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
24 Belmont 100.0%   13   30 - 4 19 - 1 30 - 4 19 - 1 +12.9      +6.4 25 +6.4 24 73.6 51 +10.4 42 +12.8 1
121 East Tennessee St. 0.0%   21 - 11 16 - 4 21 - 11 16 - 4 +2.8      +1.3 126 +1.4 120 64.4 259 +3.4 118 +5.6 2
161 Lipscomb 0.0%   16 - 13 12 - 8 16 - 13 12 - 8 +0.2      +0.2 160 0.0 165 76.0 33 0.0 166 -1.3 4
173 Jacksonville 0.0%   18 - 11 13 - 7 18 - 11 13 - 7 -0.5      -0.4 176 -0.1 168 71.7 78 +0.7 155 +0.4 3
201 Mercer 0.0%   14 - 18 11 - 9 14 - 18 11 - 9 -2.5      -1.3 202 -1.2 201 68.5 155 -3.4 219 -2.4 5
233 North Florida 0.0%   15 - 19 10 - 10 15 - 19 10 - 10 -3.8      -1.9 233 -1.9 234 68.4 156 -1.6 189 -3.7 6
254 Campbell 0.0%   11 - 19 6 - 14 11 - 19 6 - 14 -5.7      -2.9 257 -2.8 254 65.6 236 -7.1 272 -9.4 10
287 Florida Gulf Coast 0.0%   10 - 20 7 - 13 10 - 20 7 - 13 -7.8      -4.0 292 -3.8 283 73.8 49 -7.9 286 -7.6 7
301 Stetson 0.0%   8 - 22 6 - 14 8 - 22 6 - 14 -9.1      -4.6 302 -4.5 302 68.7 153 -8.9 297 -8.9 9
319 South Carolina Upstate 0.0%   5 - 25 4 - 16 5 - 25 4 - 16 -11.1      -5.6 320 -5.5 319 63.0 287 -11.2 318 -12.1 11
322 Kennesaw St. 0.0%   7 - 23 6 - 14 7 - 23 6 - 14 -11.4      -5.6 319 -5.8 322 65.1 246 -10.5 311 -8.6 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
East Tennessee St. 2.0 100.0
Lipscomb 4.0 100.0
Jacksonville 3.0 100.0
Mercer 5.0 100.0
North Florida 6.0 100.0
Campbell 8.0 100.0
Florida Gulf Coast 7.0 100.0
Stetson 8.0 100.0
South Carolina Upstate 11.0 100.0
Kennesaw St. 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Belmont 19 - 1 100.0
East Tennessee St. 16 - 4 100.0
Lipscomb 12 - 8 100.0
Jacksonville 13 - 7 100.0
Mercer 11 - 9 100.0
North Florida 10 - 10 100.0
Campbell 6 - 14 100.0
Florida Gulf Coast 7 - 13 100.0
Stetson 6 - 14 100.0
South Carolina Upstate 4 - 16 100.0
Kennesaw St. 6 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
East Tennessee St.
Lipscomb
Jacksonville
Mercer
North Florida
Campbell
Florida Gulf Coast
Stetson
South Carolina Upstate
Kennesaw St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.2 4.0 83.5 12.3 0.1
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Campbell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 39.1% 20.5% 6.7% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2%
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 100.0
2nd Round 39.1% 0.4 60.9 39.1
Sweet Sixteen 20.5% 0.2 79.5 20.5
Elite Eight 6.7% 0.1 93.3 6.7
Final Four 2.5% 0.0 97.5 2.5
Final Game 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2